A Zoogby International poll (the phone variety, NOT the wacky internet poll) for the Houston Chronicle( http://www.chron.com/disp/stor… ) Shows Lampson 17 points down, but Culberson only 7 points above Skelly.
It should be noted that this same poll showed massive movements to the Democrats at all levels in Harris County (a major part of Lampsons district), so Lampson’s showing is that much more ominous.
And it’s Zogby, so I’m going to have to wait for the bucket of salt to get here before I take it, then this tells us everything we needed to know: The DCCC saw literally dozens of challengers closer than Lampson was to Olsen and had no choice but to feed him to wolves.
I’d like to see a less kooky pollster weigh in before we write Nick’s obituary, but I kinda doubt this poll is 40 points off and the DCCC has been sitting out because he’s even further ahead than Ciro, Baron, and Gabby.
http://blogs.chron.com/houston…
Culberson 48
Skelly 41
Just about identical to the R2K/Kos poll two weeks ago.
Lampson 36
Olsen 53
So much for having a congressman as chairman of the space and aeronautics subcommittee chairman. Not like the district contains Johnson Space Center or anything.
I’m inclined to believe the poll due to their pollings of Harris county at large races. Obama leads in Harris 50-43, Noriega leads Cornyn 47-40. Bradford leads Lykos in the DA race by 7, and Generic Democratic judges lead the generic incumbent Republican judges by 3.4 points. County Judge Ed Emmett (R) leads in his race by 13 which is believable, he tied himself to BIll White during the hurricane and came off very well.
sigh. Maybe I can get a few new Dems as Galveston office holders, state senator, and state board of education member.
I always knew TX-22 was going to be hard to hold. Stinks to see Lampson likely to lose when he’s served the district well. But limiting our losses to two seats (this one and FL-16) isn’t all that bad. Yes, I don’t buy Barletta winning in PA-11, the undecides should carry Kanjorski over the top.
I spoke to some of Lampson’s people this morning and was told:
1) The poll only took 1/3 of the record African American vote into consideration.
2) The poll only took 1/2 of the Asian vote into consideration. Asians comprise 5-10% of the electorate here.
3) The results of the poll are entirely different from their own internal polling, which they described as “close but good news”.
I have very little faith in Zogby’s understanding of a very complex and rapidly expanding district, but 17 points is still concerning…
I have a hard time believing this poll. Even the guy who lost to Delay in 2004, lost only by 14 points. Lampson is incumbent, endorsed by Chronicle, got good press after the Hurricane, and has money. The political envoronment and the demographics of the district should also be much better for us than in 2004. I just don’t understand how this poll could be right.